
Manuel Werner holds a PhD in economics and is CEO of Catagori, providing a Cap and Trade platform for individuals. He has taught at HEC, was an executive with a global bank, a principal with Applied Decision Analysis in Menlo Park California and ran the Real Options Valuation business for PricewaterhouseCoopers. Dr. Werner has designed several greenhouse gas reduction strategies for large emitters.
by: Manuel Werner
If a fundamental axiom of consumer theory fairly reflects human nature – that more is better and, its handmaiden, having more than our neighbours is even better – then we should stop worrying about global warming, as that war is lost in advance. And there is little reason, looking about, to doubt the truth of that axiom; people do indeed want more; some would call this greed. The impulse to acquisitiveness is neither good nor bad. It just is; a derivative of the survival instinct. The need to always get more is one that evolved in a long ago world where there was never enough. But we don’t have to lean on biology to confirm this observation. We can just observe how far the drive for a bigger screen, a smarter phone, a faster car or an overflowing plate at an all-you-can-eatery has decoupled from actual need in any practical sense of that term. It seems that those who didn’t want more never passed along their genes.
Are we then doomed to perish in an overheated world, in murderous competition for ever scarcer water, food and dry land? Not if we are sensible about tackling the problem. And that means accounting for human nature while directly and practically engaging the individual in the struggle against global warming. After all, there is no economic activity, no matter how obscure, that takes place on this planet unless there is somewhere an individual willing and prepared to buy the final product. It is also the individual to whom political leaders look to for validation.
Economic theory, when it tries to explain consumer behaviour (preferences for the purist), relies on the notion of utility. The word utility is used here in the sense not of liking something because it is practical but, rather, because having it is a source of pleasure. Up to a saturation point, like overeating an irresistible desert, more will always increase the consumer’s utility; it is true that the extra joy from each successive mouthful will come in lesser amounts but accumulated pleasure will nevertheless grow. So, why on earth would anyone want to give up the pleasurable acquisition of goods, even though these goods depend for their very existence on dangerously adding to global warming?
Perhaps that question should be reworked: What can we do to constrain behaviour that is fundamentally self-destructive? This is, of course, a very hard question to answer, since utility maximization is an instinct that evolution has burnt deeply into our unconscious brains. It is akin to addiction, awfully difficult to treat. While some individual behaviours that create a public nuisance, such as speeding, are easier to constrain than others, those touching on basic survival, like overconsumption, are the most difficult.
If there is any doubt as to the good sense of basing decision-making in economic theory on utility maximizing behaviour, then just look around. Every discipline engages the notion of utility in one way or the other. Examples include the “willingness to pay” principle used by engineers and the reward-punishment notions of psychology. In evolutionary terms, utility maximizers have adapted and been naturally selected.
You might say that utility maximizing behaviour should militate against people knowingly contributing to global warming and thus harming themselves. You’d here be invoking that other very important axiom behind consumer theory: rationality, the idea that we won’t act in our own worst interests. But this bumps right into the “having more” problem. And therein lies the paradox which could well be our undoing.
The nucleus accumbens, a pleasure seeking region in our brains, is constantly prodding our frontal lobes to make poor judgments in return for greater pleasure. As long as global warming seems to be mainly affecting others and the catastrophic damage being foretold by most of the world’s climate scientists is still a long way off into the future, our frontal lobes have no chance against the siren call from the nucleus accumbens.
What can be done to overcome this deadly obstacle to action on global warming? First we should give up on the idea that people must make drastic lifestyle changes. Contrary to the axiom of rationality, our very human nature more or less ensures they simply won’t – at least not until they are actually staring into the abyss. This way of carrying on to the brink is tellingly encapsulated in the all too commonly invoked business aphorism, “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it.” And our climate doesn’t appear to be broken except, of course, to most of the world’s climate scientists.
Relying on good sense is probably not the best way to make sure that global warming does not get the best of us; if we could only make them understand…. Why would anyone confronted with a choice between believing climate deniers like Stephen Harper or apologists like Bjorn Lomborg, or the climate Cassandras like Al Gore ever choose the latter? Most people will ogle that nice pickup, rated at six times the emissions of a sensible fuel efficient vehicle, and think fondly of the nice Mr. Lomborg and his comforting advice not to worry too much about global warming since technology will make it go away.
Relying on behavioural modification solutions that ignore human nature is also right up there with betting on good sense: a sure road to failure. If constraints are put in the path of what people think is in their best interests, like price controls on agricultural products, black markets will quickly develop to get around those roadblocks. And depending on the enlightened self interest of those toiling in finance to self regulate and so ensure both incredible prosperity and comfortable stability ignores the insights of Thomas Hobbes when he says,
“For the laws of nature (as justice, equity, modesty, mercy, and, in sum, doing to others as we would be done to) of themselves, without the terror of some power, to cause them to be observed, are contrary to our natural passions, that carry us to partiality, pride, revenge and the like.”
Look at our recent experience. Not having addressed the problem of depending on goodwill where none exists, after the collapse of 2008, has practically ensured that we will stagger into an unusually similar credit crisis in 2011. The individuals who make up the financial industry always act in their own self-interest; we should have reined them in right after the 2008 credit crisis. Unfortunately, the pursuit of self-interest is also true for the individual putting the personal the drive to acquire more above the well-being of the environment.
For a way out of this destructive conflict between pleasurable need and rationality we should, perhaps, be looking at the recycling model, which began with small gestures and quickly grew into a must-do phenomenon. We should be enlisting people directly in the war against global warming, asking for small commitments until it builds into a global movement, the way recycling has done. The alternatives are not very attractive.
Placing carbon taxes on individuals might work but would be unfair, since the burden would fall unequally, greatly affecting those least able to pay. It is also an approach that political calculation has often discarded as too risky. It would either offend the entire electorate or alienate support from regions commercially dependant on fossil fuels. However, asking those who cannot (or will not) reduce their carbon emissions to compensate those who can and are willing to act now, offers a fairer, workable alternative. And, there are ways to do so.
Cap and Trade (CAT), the model used by the European Union to reduce CO2 and other greenhouse gases, works on that very principle. It is a successful system and is being copied by jurisdictions elsewhere, such as California, the US states that are part of the RGGI, Quebec (in 2013) and others. It avoids the pitfalls of across the board carbon taxes. Carbon taxes immediately penalize the higher cost enterprises which would eventually, in any event, either reduce their cost structure or wind up in an orderly manner. CAT, on the other hand, works at the margin and allows emitters to make better choices as to when to close down or introduce green technologies, based on market prices. And market prices are always a better indicator of how much should be paid to get what is needed, whereas taxes are just best guesses.
However, markets are not perfect. If they were, we could conceivably leave them be and allow them to provide the best allocation of resources. But the conditions needed for perfect markets are near impossible to ensure. Two such conditions in particular, that all players have perfect information and that no participant is big enough to have price setting powers rarely, if ever, occur. In financial markets, for example, some of the products are so complex that they are not understood by most market participants. So, without these conditions markets must be sufficiently regulated to ensure that they are not hijacked by clever manipulators and unscrupulous players. As we have seen in the European Trading System, it is not always immediately apparent how to best design and regulate a market. The second trading period, running from 2008 and due to expire in 2012, learned from mistakes in the first trading period (2005 to 2007), and will again make changes for the third trading period slated to begin in 2013. For example, installations will no longer receive allocations from National Allowance Plans but will get them instead from a pan-European base. This will address the problem of individual countries, for various reasons, over-allocating carbon credits, which has tended to distort the market.
In the end, though, while it is good to rein in large emitters we must also look to the individual to pull his/her weight. Indeed, it can be argued that without the individual there would not be any large emitters and if the individual could be made to care about global warming, his/her decisions would force large emitters to do what is necessary to reduce CO2 emissions. Add to this the fact that it is the burning of fossil fuels by the transportation sector that adds most to global greenhouse gases and we have an urgent case for getting the individual involved.
Easier said than done. There is a Catch 22 here. Politicians are loath to impose carbon taxes or other coercive measures on an electorate, which can turn against them if they are not already predisposed to doing something about global warming. Indeed, North American and emerging economy leadership has shown a singular lack of interest in doing anything of the sort. However, should the individual ever show a real interest in actively reducing CO2, politicians would rush to the join the game.
Catagori.com accepts that asking people to make major lifestyle changes or to pay to offset the totality of their emissions, will not work. The idea is not to eliminate all carbon emissions, but rather to reduce them to sustainable levels, which means working at the margins. Asking all individuals to reduce to the same sustainable level at the same time will also not work. However, given that there are already individuals who have a substantially lower carbon footprint than others there is room for cooperation with those who have a much larger emissions profile. Which brings us back to Cap and Trade, but this time for individuals, something the Royal Society recommended a number of years ago as the best approach to dealing with CO2 from vehicles.
At Catagori individuals are allocated a fixed number of allowances per trading period, just like in the European Trading System. Those who have emitted less CO2 than the allowances received can sell the surplus into the market through the Catagori trading platform, while those who are over the average allocation can buy the shortfall. This allows each individual to adjust their emissions at a pace which is suitable to their particular circumstances.
More importantly, this Cap and Trade system provides individuals with a way to directly impact CO2 emissions. It will sensitize them to the enormity of the problem posed by excessive greenhouse gases and make them willing participants in the fight against global warming, a sine qua non for governments to also get actively involved. As citizens, we should expect nothing less, the nucleus accumbens notwithstanding.
manuel.werner@catagori.com
514-276-3519/514-594-2887 (mobile)